Thoughts from a First Time Self-Publisher Part 6: Projections and planning continued….
Hello! I’m sitting here at my desk - my first week of my new work schedule - grinning about having some dedicated time during the week to put into game design and this kickstarter.
Best Part of my week (so far): We surpassed 200 followers on the pre-launch page ! As of today (Tuesday), we are 6 weeks away from the launch day and I’m cautiously optimistic about being ready for it. I also just got done playing a great game of Super Snipers with Wes Woodbury who will be covering it as part of his “Fun in Five” series.
Most stressful part: Nothing too terrible. I will regret saying this, but I’m feeling reasonably on top of things.
The Numbers:
As of Wednesday at 2:30 pm compared to last week at the same time.
The Big Number: Spending some more money on promotions and paid previews. Another $425 on its way out shortly. New total: $22,385 invested in this project so far.
FB page- 122 130 (+8)
Public Group- 53 102 (+48). Looks like I need to do a welcome post!
Private - 66 67 (+1)
Pre-launch- 187 216 (+29)
Email list- 587 651 (+64)
Discord- 55 56 (+1)
TTS- 113 115 (+2)
YouTube- 18 subscribers. No Change
Numbers are still moving in the right direction, though my ad spend per conversion has increased a bit and I may need to work with Sean on getting some new ads out there. After listening to a recent podcast and seeing a post from Roque A Deleon, I did send out an email to my email list with encouragement to join the FB group and that clearly had an impact.
One more note on Reviewers:
When you ship a game overseas for a review, you will be asked to classify the product and also assign a value to it. I assigned a value of $70 (the approximate cost of the prototype), and this was a big mistake as my contacts on the other end are getting hit with customs and VAT charges that I will then have to reimburse. I received the following great advice from Selwyn over at Board’s Eye View:
“I usually advise that you mark on the customs declaration form that the package is a free sample for review (gift) with cost as zero or a very nominal amount (say $2). That reduces the risk of the recipient being hit with import duties and an often disproportionately high courier ‘handling fee’ on top (we’ve had packages arrive in the past with a small VAT charge of just a couple of pounds but then the courier has demanded £12 on top for their admin in collecting the VAT!). This advice works for sending packages to the UK and almost certainly applies to European Union countries too.”
I will know better next time!
Projections Continued:
Last Post I left off with a cliffhanger ending of having a “very successful” Kickstarter that left me $10,250 in the hole but with 700 copies to try to turn it all around with. Before I get to that though, it is only fair to also talk about what a “worst case” scenario looks like.
The Worst Case Scenario: Just Funding.
There are a lot of conversations around setting appropriate funding goals. Some folks feel strongly that a funding goal should represent what you need for a “successful” project. Many folks are annoyed by the artificially low funding goals set that allow publishers to say “Funded in 30 seconds”. Even more of us are annoyed when the funding goal is met but the project is canceled because it wasn’t their actual goal.
The fact is, the quicker you hit your funding goal, the more likely you are to bring in more money over the course of the campaign. So, what to do? For me, the funding goal represents the bare minimum that I would be willing to move forward on. My goal is to get 200 backers and “fund” on the first day to maximize my likelihood of doing well. That means: $10,000. What would it look like if at the end of the campaign I fund, but only just?
From that $10,000:
10% in fees: -$1,000 (KS and CC fees)
Manufacturing bill of -$5,625 (500 copies, the lowest you can go)
Fulfillment costs of -$1200
Free copies to reviewers that I owe copies to: About $300
Note: no expectation of retailer purchases at this level.
Remaining $: $1,875
Now, subtract the approximately $23,000 invested and I am left at -$21,125 with somewhere around 290 copies that I can try to sell for $50 a piece. That’s technically $14,500 of potential money to recoup, but the Kickstarter would have proved that I am unlikely to do that.
That, is the reality I am willing to face to get the opportunity to do something greater (no risk, no reward).
Back to the “success” projections:
700 copies of Super Snipers. First, I forgot to remove games that will be given away for promotional or review purposes, so let’s re-adjust to 680. Let’s assume that I do take on making some sales at conventions and keep 100 copies for this purpose. These are pure profit for me (minus the cost of attending and/ or tabling at the conventions) so, 100 copies x 50 = $5,000.
Let’s assume that I personally take on getting my games to retailers that didn’t back during the Kickstarter. Retailers expect 50% off MSRP. My games come 10 to a case, and I may sweeten the deal by charging for 9 and providing the 10th as free copy for demoes (a good idea, as it ultimately helps your product out). I’m going to go with a low estimate for this and say I sell 5 cases for $225 each. 5 x 225 = $1,125
The remaining 530, I will attempt to sell through a distributor. I just finished signing up with Bridge Distribution who will hold my stock and sell it to retailers and other distributors they have relationships with. If they sell to a retailer, they will send me approximately $20 per game. If they sell to another distributor, it will be about, $17.50 per game. Let’s assume a 60/40 split between retailers and other distributors and that everything sells: $10,070
So now I am sold out and I’ve made an additional $16,195 for a profit of $5,945.00. The hardest I will have ever worked for that amount of money.
But wait…there’s more: Licensing and Second Printings. Next week :). Thanks for reading and, as always, let me know what you want to know!
